Bayesian Statistics

Bayesian Statistics “Under Bayes’ Theorem, no theory is perfect. Rather it is a work in progress, always subject to refinement and further testing” Nate Silver Introduction With the recent publication of the REMAP-CAP steroid arm and the Bayesian post-hoc re-analysis of the EOLIA trial, it appears Bayesian statistics are appearing more frequently in critical care trials. The purpose of this […]

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Type 1 and 2 Errors

In statistical hypothesis testing, a type I error is the incorrect rejection of a true null hypothesis (a “false positive”), while a type II error is incorrectly retaining a false null hypothesis (a “false negative”). The more you try and avoid a Type I error (false positive), the more likely a Type II error (false negative) may happen. Researchers have found that an alpha level of 5% is a good balance between these two issues

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